The topic of the January luncheon was “A Roadmap to Recovery”
and our guest speaker, Dr. Marci Rossell gave a profound explanation
of what lead to the current economic recession and how we will
recover.
Ms. Rossell explained that the economy is in the early stages
of recovery and reminded the audience that “jobs do not
create recovery, recovery creates jobs”. Employment has
historically been the last thing to come back after a recession,
and this recession is no exception. She expects that 3 months
from now, firms will start to hire permanent employees.
Dr. Rossell anticipates economic growth of approximately 2.5%
in 2010 and explained that some of the stimulus programs that
went into effect last year, simply borrowed growth from this year,
and cited the $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit and the Cash
for Clunkers programs as examples. She believes that as people’s
appetite for risk comes back, they will return to the markets,
primarily since their investments are only yielding 2% returns
and inflation is expected to increase by 4%. The return to the
market, combined with an increase in U.S. exports, will drive
the recovery of the U. S. market. She indicated that the recent
decline in value of the dollar is expected as the capital markets
return to normal and this will provide a needed boost to U.S.
exports, which will, in turn, create job growth.
With respect to real estate, Dr. Rossell expects lenders to begin
lending within the next 6 months, which will lead to some improvements
in the commercial real estate market during the second half of
2010.
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attendee list.
